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SPECS empirical seasonal forecasts

Past observations are used to deduce significant correlations between the weather in the last three months (up to the beginning of the month) and the weather over the next season (from the end of the month). The main predictors are El Niño / La Niña and the trends due to global warming. Overfitting is avoided as much as possible. The system has been documented in Eden et al, 2015.

For an interactive version of these plots and to better understand the sources of predictability go to KPREP sources of predictability.

Forecast anomalies [°C] of May-July 2021 temperature made in early April.

The development of this forecast system was supported by the EU-project SPECS.