The selection of CMIP6 models for the KNMI scenarios is the "set of 33 CMIP6 models that have done simulations at least for monthly average T, P, surface solar radiation, surface wind for historical and with the same ripf code also the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP558 scenario runs up to 2100" (at the time of analysis, ie circa 2020). See sect 2.1.2 of KNMI23 climate scenarios scientific report, which states: "To assess regional climate change for the chosen SSP scenarios and warming levels, we use a set of simulations of 33 CMIP6 models (Table 2.2), referred to as the ‘CMIP6 standard set’. The models were selected on the basis of data availability alone. The requirements were the availability of historical and scenario runs (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) with the same variant-id to ensure a continuous evolution from the past into the future, and the availability of all variables of interest (near-surface temperature, TAS, precipitation, PR, incoming solar radiation, RSDS, and surface pressure, PSL). A set of 33 CMIP6 models matched these criteria for the main data set (monthly data)."
See also K. van der Wiel et al. "KNMI'23 climate scenarios for the Netherlands: storyline scenarios of regional climate change" (2024) for a published scientific paper.
The 33 models of the standard set are listed in the table below. The models have been categorized as 'dry (D)' or 'wet (W)' or 'neither (-)' on the basis of the change of precipitation in the catchments of Rhine and Meuse.
Model | Dry or Wet |
ACCESS-CM2 | - |
ACCESS-ESM1-5 | D |
AWI-CM-1-1-MR | D |
BCC-CSM2-MR | D |
CanESM5 | W |
CanESM5-CanOE | W |
CESM2-WACCM | - |
CESM2 | W |
CIESM | - |
CMCC-CM2-SR5 | - |
CNRM-CM6-1 | W |
CNRM-CM6-1-HR | W |
CNRM-ESM2-1 | W |
EC-Earth3 | W |
EC-Earth3-Veg | W |
FGOALS-f3-L | W |
FGOALS-g3 | - |
GFDL-ESM4 | - |
GISS-E2-1-G | - |
HadGEM3-GC31-LL | D |
INM-CM4-8 | D |
INM-CM5-0 | W |
IPSL-CM6A-LR | W |
KACE-1-0-G | D |
MIROC6 | - |
MIROC-ES2L | - |
MPI-ESM1-2-HR | - |
MPI-ESM1-2-LR | D |
MRI-ESM2-0 | D |
NESM3 | D |
NorESM2-LM | - |
NorESM2-MM | D |
UKESM1-0-LL | D |