Noise model
To compute an area avergae, the average anomaly is computed and this
is added to the climatology. This usually gives a better estimate
than a straight average in the presence of missing data, especially
when there is a gradient in the clmatoloy over the area (e.g.,
Niño3).
However, this assumption that the noise amplitude is equal in all grid
points can give rise to negative numbers for positive-definite
quantities such as precipitation. For this variable an error model
proportional to the variability is better
but this option has not
yet been implemented.