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Attribution drought Horn of Africa 2023, precipitation and SPEI

time series

MAM accumulated precipitation
Gridded observations [mm]: chirps05_centrends01, cpc
Models
HighResMIP annual [mm]: highresSST_CMCC-CM2-HR4, highresSST_CMCC-CM2-VHR4, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1-HR, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1, highresSST_EC-Earth3P-HR, highresSST_EC-Earth3P, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-HM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-LM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-MM, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-HR, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-XR
CORDEX annual [mm]: AFR-22_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_REMO2009, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_HIRHAM5, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_GFDL-ESM2M_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-MR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r2_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_NorESM1-M_r1_RCA4

OND accumulated precipitation
Gridded observations [mm]: chirps05_centrends01, cpc,
Models
HighResMIP annual [mm]: highresSST_CMCC-CM2-HR4, highresSST_CMCC-CM2-VHR4, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1-HR, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1, highresSST_EC-Earth3P-HR, highresSST_EC-Earth3P, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-HM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-LM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-MM, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-HR, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-XR
CORDEX annual [mm]: AFR-22_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_REMO2009, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_HIRHAM5, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_GFDL-ESM2M_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-MR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r2_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_NorESM1-M_r1_RCA4

24-month accumulated precipitation
Gridded observations [mm]: chirps05_centrends01, cpc
Models
HighResMIP annual [mm]: highresSST_CMCC-CM2-HR4, highresSST_CMCC-CM2-VHR4, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1-HR, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1, highresSST_EC-Earth3P-HR, highresSST_EC-Earth3P, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-HM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-LM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-MM, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-HR, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-XR
CORDEX annual [mm]: AFR-22_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_REMO2009, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_HIRHAM5, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_GFDL-ESM2M_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-MR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r2_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_NorESM1-M_r1_RCA4

SPEI-24
Gridded observations [mm]: cpc
Models
HighResMIP annual [mm]: highresSST_CMCC-CM2-HR4, highresSST_CMCC-CM2-VHR4, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1-HR, highresSST_CNRM-CM6-1, highresSST_EC-Earth3P-HR, highresSST_EC-Earth3P, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-HM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-LM, highresSST_HadGEM3-GC31-MM, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-HR, highresSST_MPI-ESM1-2-XR
CORDEX annual [mm]: AFR-22_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_CCLM5-0-15, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_REMO2015, AFR-22_NorESM1-M_r1_RegCM4-7, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_CNRM-CM5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_CanRCM4, AFR-44_CanESM2_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r12_REMO2009, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_HIRHAM5, AFR-44_EC-EARTH_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_GFDL-ESM2M_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RACMO22T, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_HadGEM2-ES_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_IPSL-CM5A-MR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MIROC5_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_CCLM4-8-17, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r1_REMO2009, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r2_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-LR_r3_RCA4, AFR-44_MPI-ESM-MR_r1_RegCM4-3, AFR-44_NorESM1-M_r1_RCA4

Covariates
GMST smoothed (observations, Cordex): GMST-smoothed, CNRM-CM5_rcp85_r1, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r1, CanESM2_rcp85_r1, EC-EARTH_rcp85_r1, EC-EARTH_rcp85_r12, EC-EARTH_rcp85_r3, GFDL-ESM2M_rcp85_r1, HadGEM2-ES_rcp85_r1, IPSL-CM5A-LR_rcp85_r1, IPSL-CM5A-MR_rcp85_r1, MIROC5_rcp85_r1, MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r1, MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r2, MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r3, MPI-ESM-MR_rcp85_r1, NorESM1-M_rcp85_r1

Detrended OND Nino3.4 indices (observations, Cordex): Nino3.4-rel, CNRM-CM5_rcp85_r1, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r1, CanESM2_rcp85_r1, EC-EARTH_rcp85_r1, EC-EARTH_rcp85_r12, EC-EARTH_rcp85_r3, GFDL-ESM2M_rcp85_r1, HadGEM2-ES_rcp85_r1, IPSL-CM5A-LR_rcp85_r1, IPSL-CM5A-MR_rcp85_r1, MIROC5_rcp85_r1, MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r1, MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r2, MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r3, MPI-ESM-MR_rcp85_r1, NorESM1-M_rcp85_r1

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