Attribution East Africa Floods 2024

Tanzania/Burundi/SW Kenya - time series

March-May maxima of 30-day accumulated precipitation

Observations [mm/30days]
chirps, cpc, era5, mswep, tamsat
Models [mm/30days]
CMIP6: ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1, CMCC-ESM2_r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR_r1i1p1f2, CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2, CanESM5_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1, FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1, INM-CM4-8_r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1, IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1, MIROC6_r1i1p1f1, MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1, MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1, NorESM2-LM_r1i1p1f1, NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1, TaiESM1_r1i1p1f1
CORDEX: CNRM-CM5_CCLM4-8-17, CNRM-CM5_RCA4, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_RCA4, CanESM2_CanRCM4, CanESM2_RCA4, EC-EARTH_RACMO22T, EC-EARTH_RCA4, GFDL-ESM2M_RCA4, HadGEM2-ES_CCLM4-8-17, HadGEM2-ES_RACMO22T, HadGEM2-ES_RCA4, IPSL-CM5A-MR_RCA4, MIROC5_RCA4, MPI-ESM-LR_CCLM4-8-17, MPI-ESM-LR_RCA4, MPI-ESM-LR_REMO2009, NorESM1-M_RCA4
HighRESMIP: CMCC-CM2-HR4_r1i1p1f1, CMCC-CM2-VHR4_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3P-HR_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3P_r1i1p1f1, FGOALS-f3-H_r1i1p1f1, FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1, HadGEM3-GC31-HM_r1i1p1f1, HadGEM3-GC31-LM_r1i1p1f1, HadGEM3-GC31-MM_r1i1p1f1, HiRAM-SIT-HR_r1i1p1f1, HiRAM-SIT-LR_r1i1p1f1, MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1, MPI-ESM1-2-XR_r1i1p1f1, MRI-AGCM3-2-H_r1i1p1f1, MRI-AGCM3-2-S_r1i1p1f1, NICAM16-7S_r1i1p1f1, NICAM16-8S_r1i1p1f1

smoothed GSAT [C]

observations: gmst, iod, nino
CMIP6 ssp858: ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1, CMCC-ESM2_r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR_r1i1p1f2, CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2, CanESM5_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1, FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1, INM-CM4-8_r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1, IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1, MIROC6_r1i1p1f1, MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1, MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1, NorESM2-LM_r1i1p1f1, NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1, TaiESM1_r1i1p1f1
CMIP5 rcp8.5: CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, NorESM1-M

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